Global Trade Outlook: World merchandise trade growth is forecast to slow sharply in 2026, with geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, and currency swings adding cost pressure for importers and exporters. Maritime Security: A Russian strike hit a civilian cargo ship in Ukraine’s Odesa region, killing one sailor and injuring three, underscoring risks to Black Sea shipping. Transit & Housing: California’s VTA is giving employees a preference to buy or rent affordable homes built on agency land, while Sound Transit is holding a drop-in session for tenants and property owners affected by expansion projects in Seattle. Freight & Corridors: The South Caucasus is increasingly viewed through the lens of rail, highways, and energy links as countries compete to become indispensable transit hubs. Policy & Mobility Costs (Nigeria): Nigeria’s federal government says CNG and EV deployments are enabling lower fares on selected routes, but commuters report little change after the October 1 target. AI Governance (Canada): Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a National Council on Artificial Intelligence to guide adoption while protecting Canadian sovereignty. EV Push (India): Odisha extended its EV policy incentives through Dec. 31, 2026, including road tax exemptions and purchase subsidies.
AGP Executive Report
Your go-to archive of top headlines, summarized for quick and easy reading.
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Maritime Security: Two oil tankers were struck by “unidentified projectiles” near the Strait of Hormuz and east of Oman, with UKMTO reporting small fire/blackout on one vessel and no crew or environmental impact on either; authorities are investigating as shipping faces renewed risk in a key global chokepoint. Food & Fuel Logistics: The UN FAO says global food prices hit a near four-year high in September as logistics disruptions and shipping uncertainty—linked to Hormuz and Black Sea trade—push up cereal, sugar and vegetable oil costs, raising pressure on inflation and household budgets. UK Transport Infrastructure: Transport for West Midlands released aerial progress on Dudley’s new bus interchange, aiming to boost departures and improve bus-tram connectivity with the Midland Metro extension. Shipping Finance: Athens is courting ocean shipping listings on the Greek exchange, positioning itself as a Mediterranean “plan B” for shipowners amid geopolitics and shifting market access. Public Transit Labor: RMT members at Chiltern Railways plan walkouts over proposed driver-only operation on East West Rail services. Kenya Ports & Energy: Lamu’s planned Dangote refinery is expected to lift vessel traffic and port demand as construction equipment begins arriving. Morocco Logistics: DHL designates Morocco a priority “Geographic Tailwinds” market, citing nearshoring and its Europe-Africa logistics position. Transit Employment: An Indio employment expo drew 1,700 job seekers, including roles across transportation and logistics-related employers.
Maritime Security: A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a small fire and a temporary onboard blackout; authorities are investigating and urging extra caution. Port & Terminal Tech: Diversis Capital bought majority control of Tideworks Technology, a terminal operating system provider used by 130+ facilities worldwide. Public Transit Ops: Boston’s MBTA is exploring a falconry program to deter pigeons after complaints about droppings and health risks. Safety & Digital Twins: ABS, Siemens and HD Korea Shipbuilding are developing digital twin tech to predict how toxic ammonia leaks spread on ships. Freight & Trade Corridors: A World Bank report says the Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor could more than triple trade and cut transit times, boosting jobs. EAEU Connectivity: Armenia’s PM Pashinyan pushed continued EAEU transport and export reforms, including the TRIPP rail link concept. Procurement & Food Systems: The EU is finalizing rules to modernize public procurement, including food criteria like fair farmer pay and organic/quality labels. Urban Mobility Funding: Springfield, Ohio won a $1.2M FTA grant to expand its on-demand “Field Trips” transit service. Logistics Partnerships: DP World and Nigeria’s TGI Group plan to expand contract logistics in Nigeria, with TGI expected to take a stake subject to approval.
UAE Mobility & Digital Commerce: Dubai is launching an escrow-backed online marketplace for premium number plates, with the Mazal app holding buyers’ funds until ownership transfer is confirmed—aimed at replacing informal, broker-led sales in a market that has seen Dh1.7bn in transactions over three years. Trade Facilitation: India extended export support under its RELIEF and RoDTEP-linked measures, including ECGC-backed coverage for shipments affected by Gulf and West Asia disruptions. Public Transport Tech Investment: Abu Dhabi Mobility (Integrated Transport Centre) announced a Dh300m+ push for next-gen public transport, including automated vehicle management and a smart fare collection system. Maritime & Security Tech: OPSWAT partnered with Redington to scale critical infrastructure cyber protection across the Middle East, Türkiye, Africa and the CIS. Logistics & Infrastructure Corridors: World Bank experts say the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor” is becoming viable for bulk commodity supply chains. Aerospace & Defense Industrialization: Embraer and Mahindra advanced preparations for India’s C-390 Millennium industrial ecosystem, with Nagpur flagged for potential final assembly.
Whale-Safe Shipping: California’s Protecting Blue Whales and Blue Skies program says 63 shipping and cruise lines voluntarily cut speeds to 10 knots or less across the full coast, covering 310,700 nautical miles to reduce ship strikes and emissions. Trade & Transport Policy: Türkiye and Ukraine’s free trade pact takes effect, aiming for $10B in bilateral business and including quota-free bilateral and transit transportation rules. Maritime & Sanctions: The U.S. added Iran’s auto and rail sectors to sanctions, targeting companies tied to Tehran’s ability to move goods amid shipping pressure. Logistics Expansion: Rhenus is advancing a trimodal container terminal plan in Kazakhstan’s Aktau to link sea, rail and road along the Trans-Caspian route. Industrial Real Estate: Cummins’ Darlington campus is adding a 282,000 sq ft logistics facility, with steel erection underway and automated storage plus HGV access. Aerospace Supply Chain: Embraer and Mahindra picked Nagpur for potential C-390 Millennium final assembly, contingent on an Indian Air Force order. Public Transit Costs: Selangor (Malaysia) launched a RM30 monthly KTM Komuter subsidy via the Nine e-wallet under its resilience package through Dec 2026. Freight Operations: Oxea selected Uber Freight to manage global chemical logistics across truckload, rail and ocean.
Maritime Security & Trade: The UAE’s maritime pre-load cargo information (MPCI) rules take full effect Oct. 1, with NAIC pushing for tighter port and border security. Shipping Capacity & Costs: China–India container rates have more than doubled since July as vessel space tightens, forcing importers to rework logistics budgets. East Africa Shipping Expansion: Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) will launch a weekly Mombasa–Nhava Sheva service next month (2,500 TEUs), adding another India link for Kenya’s gateway port. Port/Logistics Tech: WiseTech Global and PortConnect NZ are integrating container event data into CargoWise to improve near real-time visibility of quay-to-landsid e moves. Freight & Air Demand: IATA reports global air cargo demand up 4.4% y/y in August, with capacity slightly down and load factors rising. Diesel & Fares: Ghana reviews its diesel subsidy as an 8% public transport fare increase takes effect. Workforce & Skills: Andover College students build an AI transport-and-timetable assistant chatbot for local travel queries. Energy/Geopolitics: Iran says it received a US response on Gulf ceasefire steps as Hormuz shipping activity recovers.
Maritime Security & Energy Markets: A UKMTO report says a crude tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns for shipping lanes that are already disrupting Gulf exports; analysts also lifted 2026 oil price forecasts as inventories are expected to absorb supply shortfalls. Freight Costs & Diesel Pressure: Diesel eased in the U.S., but freight rates remain elevated, with CFOs warning relief may lag until Hormuz flows and refining capacity stabilize. Transit & Public Mobility: Kogi West Senator Sunday Karimi launched a free shuttle in Lokoja to cut commuting costs, while Illinois’ Sangamon Mass Transit District advanced plans for a new transfer hub with grant-backed funding. Warehouse & Returns Tech: PULPO WMS rolled out a self-service merchant portal and activity-based billing for 3PLs, and DoorDash launched retail returns with custom drones to speed pickup and refunds. Logistics Policy & Standards: India’s DPIIT and ADB-backed work is moving toward warehouse and cold-chain grading and rating, aiming to unlock incentives and credit. Ports & Trade Capacity: Ghana’s Tema Port dredging is set to deepen berthing capacity to handle larger vessels, supporting West Africa’s maritime trade ambitions. EV Financing: The Philippines’ DTI and Veterans Bank partnered to fund EVs for transport operators and expand MSME access to capital.
Aviation & Security: Germany has switched on a drone detection system at Berlin Brandenburg Airport to spot drones early and alert authorities, with other international airports expected to get similar coverage this year. Maritime & Trade Risk: UNCTAD warns that Strait of Hormuz disruptions could raise shipping costs and squeeze Kenyan SMEs, which drive most jobs and business activity. Air Cargo Demand: IATA reports global air cargo demand rose 4.4% year-on-year in August, with capacity broadly stable and yields improving as airlines absorb fuel-cost pressure. Logistics Disruption: Thai Airways Cargo will pause inbound, outbound and transit cargo acceptance at Suvarnabhumi from Oct 1–6 due to flooding disrupting staff travel and warehouse operations. Port & Corridor Moves: Kenya’s first 40,000-tonne fuel cargo for Rwanda arrives in Mombasa, activating a new Kenya–Rwanda petroleum corridor. Supply Chain Tech: Ghana’s TRAFFITECH-GH automated enforcement rollout is delayed to Nov 1 to allow more public sensitisation. Workforce & Policy: Cambodia sets a 2027 garment-sector minimum wage at US$212/month, effective Jan 1. Sustainable Warehousing: Yusen Logistics opens a sustainable distribution centre in Northampton with automation, solar, rainwater harvesting and EV charging, creating 150 jobs.
Logistics & Trade Policy: The U.S. has imposed a ban on Canadian goods worth about $1B, escalating pressure in the Canada trade dispute and hitting sectors including transport vehicles and alcohol. Port & Corridor Development: South Africa’s Cabinet approved splitting Transnet’s ports into a standalone Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) landlord, aiming to speed investment and reform logistics governance. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Germany reaffirmed plans to deepen cooperation in industry, critical minerals, and transport/logistics after trade hit $4.5B in 2025. Maritime & Security: The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruption continues to reshape shipping routes and risk premiums, with new corridor and resilience efforts highlighted for Europe-Gulf trade. Supply Chain Tech & Compliance: A class-action investigation is underway after Gallagher Transport International reported a data breach involving potential exposure of Social Security numbers. Infrastructure & Jobs: King Technology opened a $17M manufacturing and distribution center in St. Peters, Missouri, to serve U.S. distributors and dealers. Transit & Mobility: Dubai’s RTA rolled out an AI-driven Smart Test System to standardize light-vehicle driving assessments and improve road safety. Defense Logistics: General Dynamics IT won a $510M Army field support task order for global logistics and sustainment of C5ISR-M systems.
Maritime Policy Shift (Malaysia): Malaysia’s Transport Ministry will take sole authority for approving bunkering licences and permits from Feb. 1, 2027, aiming to cut “red tape” and standardize safety, fuel-quality and environmental decisions, with work underway on green bunkering rules alongside Australia (LNG, biofuels, methanol). Shipping Disruption (Hormuz/Red Sea): With Strait of Hormuz effectively closed after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, shipping traffic is down sharply and Bab el-Mandeb faces added pressure from Houthi attacks—raising freight, insurance and rerouting costs. Trade & Ports (UAE–India): Piyush Goyal says the UAE plans an extra $25B investment in India, targeting $200B bilateral trade by 2032, with focus on ports, shipbuilding, logistics, energy and local-currency payments. Canal Capacity (Panama): The Panama Canal will raise daily transits from 32 to 33 on Oct. 15 as rainfall improves and Neopanamax draft limits are restored. Urban Transport Stress (Kyrgyzstan): Bishkek’s road network is at capacity, with traffic jams and pollution worsening, pushing calls for a real shift toward public transport and stricter regulation. Logistics Tech (Automation): Swisslog and Feldschlösschen broke ground on a modernized Rheinfelden logistics centre using a monorail system and SAP EWM for end-to-end warehouse transparency.
Trans-Caspian Corridor Boost: AIIB and Georgia signed a EUR158.42M deal to build 67.4 km of climate-resilient road links in Kakheti, improving access to the East-West Highway and Black Sea trade routes. Cross-Border Customs Push: Azerbaijan and Türkiye agreed on faster, more computerized customs procedures to speed freight and cut border friction, with follow-on talks with Georgia on electronic information sharing. Port & Corridor Upgrades: Nigeria approved modernization for Onne, Delta, and Calabar ports to diversify gateways beyond Lagos. Logistics Digitization: Ricoh says DocuWare is helping carriers speed proof-of-delivery, compliance records, and exception handling to move shipments toward payment faster. Trade Policy Pressure: U.S. shipping stakeholders urged USTR to extend the suspension of China-linked Section 301 vessel fees, warning of added cost and uncertainty. Automation in Warehousing: JD.com’s logistics arm will build an automated Kezad hub in Abu Dhabi, targeting 1,000 jobs and regional distribution. Maritime Risk Context: EU defense ministers warned Russia may blur civilian shipping and military activity, including drone threats launched from commercial vessels. Workforce & Compliance: EEOC sued Michigan-based Davis Cartage over alleged sexual harassment and claimed the company failed to act after prior complaints.
Clean-Fuels Push in South Africa: Research warns road transport pollution is driving major health harm, as the country’s vehicle emission rules haven’t been updated since 2006; the 2027 Clean Fuels Two window could help, but only if emission standards are tightened alongside. Festival Transit Cost Controls (Nepal): Nepal’s transport federation pledges no public fare hikes for Dashain if fuel prices hold, while officials promise flood-and-landslide highway clearance before the festival and say smart monitoring will be used. Mobility Materials for EVs (Korea): LG Chem and Volkswagen will co-develop lighter, higher-performance plastics and recycled composites for next-gen vehicles. Freight Tech Integration (Australia): QuickQuote will embed cargo insurance quoting and binding into Yojee’s Mosaic logistics platform to cut duplicate data entry. Marine Insurance Outlook: IUMI says marine premiums rose but the market remains soft as capacity increases, with geopolitics and new trade routes reshaping risk. Trade Corridors & Logistics: A Pakistan–China rail link is cutting delivery times for dried chillies, while Iran says Chabahar transit cooperation with Afghanistan is expanding. EV & Fleet Moves: Tesla begins Semi deliveries for long-haul freight, and Leapmotor’s new affordable electric hatch is approved for sale in Australia.
Cross-Border Trade Boost: Iraq and Syria agreed on eight measures to streamline trade and passenger movement, including electronic customs-data exchange, dedicated lanes, and faster transit—Damascus expects bilateral trade to rise 30–50% in the first year. Middle East Shipping Pressure: Iran is exploring Caspian Sea routes as US-linked blockade and Strait of Hormuz disruption strain southern logistics, though analysts warn the northern shift can’t quickly match Hormuz’s scale. Energy & Transport Costs: Saudi crude exports jumped 80% in September to the highest since the Iran-US war began, while jet fuel prices climbed 7.4% in a week to about $194.90/bbl, adding pressure on airlines and freight. Port Capacity Moves: Nigeria approved upgrades for four eastern ports (Onne, Rivers, Delta, Calabar) to decongest Lagos and cut vessel turnaround times. Local Disruption: Albay, Philippines suspended in-person classes for Sept. 29–30 due to a transport strike protesting fuel-price hikes. Mobility Tech: Dubai opened Mobility Labs for autonomous vehicle testing, with Tesla among early participants.
Maritime Security: Oman urged Iran and the US to resolve disputes after Trump rejected a Strait of Hormuz reopening plan, warning the chokepoint’s disruption is hitting shipping, energy and prices. Shipping Safety Push: India and Liberia launched a 25-nation group at the UN to protect commercial ships and seafarers amid attacks across major sea lanes. Transit & Infrastructure: Penang’s Pesta Pulau Pinang site is closing for the Mutiara Line LRT station and depot, while Thurrock is consulting on a new rail station to support housing and cut congestion. Public Transit Tech: Tanzania’s PM and transport minister visited Qatar’s Lusail e-bus depot and charging ecosystem to learn how to scale sustainable transit. Green Shipping Fuels: India broke ground on a port-based e-methanol plant at Kandla, targeting cleaner fuel supply for vessels on the Asia-Europe corridor. Warehousing Automation: Yusen Logistics UK opened a giant warehouse in England’s “golden triangle” using robotics and a conveyor system previously deployed only in China. Labor & Operations: Akron METRO workers ratified a six-year deal, averting a transit strike. Fuel Cost Pressure: Nigeria’s courier and logistics union warned rising fuel prices and multiple taxes are squeezing operators. Regional Trade Connectivity: GCC chief Jasem Albudaiwi called for deeper regional convergence across energy, trade, transport and digital systems. Local Disruption: Albay, Philippines ordered school closures for a two-day transport strike over fuel hikes and taxes.
Maritime Security & Energy: Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and end fighting, keeping shipping risk elevated as oil slid back near $92. Trade & Tech Diplomacy: The US and China agreed on a $30B tariff-cut framework plus an AI dialogue and incident-communication channel, aiming to stabilize rivalry. Clean Shipping Investment: India laid the foundation for a port-based e-methanol plant at Deendayal Port (Kandla), targeting 150 tonnes/day and supplying the Asia–Europe corridor with green fuel. Port & Workforce Development: Luxembourg pledged €15M (9.8B FCFA) to train Benin port and logistics workers under the CAP-PORT program. Logistics Costs: DHL Express announced an 8.9% India charge increase from Jan 1, citing inflation and currency pressures. Regional Transport Policy: Nigeria’s transport leadership pushed port modernization and better road-rail-waterway integration to cut logistics costs. Safety & Disruption: Russia and Ukraine traded accusations over drone and missile strikes that killed at least five and left tens injured, while NJ reported widespread power outages after severe winds.
Maritime Security & Trade Policy: India’s Jaishankar warned at UNGA that AI brings both opportunity and security risks for maritime systems, while welcoming India-GCC FTA talks as shipping faces ongoing challenges. Cross-Border Travel: Canada’s tariff fight with the US appears to be flipping flows, with Americans increasingly outnumbering Canadians heading north. Regional Corridors: Azerbaijan doubled down on its Middle Corridor push, citing major growth in freight volumes and new energy and transit links, including Baku port and Baku–Tbilisi–Kars rail. Logistics Costs & Digital Shift: A new India logistics snapshot puts total logistics cost at 7.97% of GDP, with commodity logistics moving toward tracking, forecasting, and AI-driven supply-chain visibility. Shipping Disruption Watch: Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly thinned sharply, underscoring how quickly global routes can tighten. Infrastructure Buildout: Kyrgyzstan broke ground on a PPP logistics complex in Kyzyl-Kiya, targeting modern warehousing and thousands of jobs. Workforce & Mobility: Zimbabwe is rolling out subsidised transport buses for 10,000+ civil servants in Bulawayo to improve commute reliability.
Transit Labor Update: Metro Inc. workers at a Laval produce distribution centre and head office, plus drivers at Mérite 1, are returning to work Sept. 27 after ratifying a new collective agreement that ends a strike that began March 30, with 22% raises over 5½ years and added job-protection and safety terms. Air Traffic Oversight: The UK Civil Aviation Authority has published terms of reference for its review of the Nats air traffic control system failure that disrupted more than 2,000 flights, focusing on resilience, modernization delivery, and consumer impact. Freight Disruption: Lufthansa Cargo paused freighter service to Mumbai from Sept. 20 through month-end due to congestion and operating issues, with truck wait times reported up to three days and a shift to Navi Mumbai from Oct. 1. Cross-Border Trade Tech: A Kazakhstan-China project aims to cut vehicle clearance at Khorgos and Nur Zholy from 20–30 days to within one day, backed by $10m for systems and plans for $200m more in warehouses and road buildout. Infrastructure Finance: Ethiopia and Djibouti announced a 120-km refined products pipeline plan with Dangote to reduce tanker reliance, ease corridor congestion, and speed fuel deliveries. Public Transit Funding: Ohio’s WRTA won $2.2m for enhanced Belmont Avenue bus stops, adding shelters, lighting, bike parking, signage, and accessible waiting areas. Logistics Operations: Echo integrated ITS Logistics and Roadtex into a single North American supply chain network spanning 8m sq ft across 40+ sites, targeting next-day reach to 85% of the contiguous U.S. Trade Policy: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington is “comfortable” with its Canada standoff and sees “no urgency” to strike a new deal despite looming U.S. import bans and threatened higher tariffs.
Maritime Disruption: Ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Gulf of Oman hit operational limits as Saudi Arabia reroutes exports through Hormuz after Red Sea disruptions, tightening tanker availability and raising shipping costs and transit times. Cold-Chain Tech: Copeland completed its acquisition of Dickson, expanding cloud-based environmental monitoring and compliance tools for pharma cold chains from manufacturing to patient care. Logistics Real Estate: ALP and CapitaLand broke ground on Singapore’s $260m OMEGA 1 logistics hub near Tuas Port, pairing automation with digital systems for cross-border fulfillment. Identity & Access Security: Keeper launched a Google Chat integration to manage privileged access requests and approvals inside Google Workspace, aiming to streamline just-in-time elevation and audit trails. Road Infrastructure Planning: India’s NHAI issued data-driven guidelines for high-speed access-controlled highways, including smarter traffic forecasting tied to freight growth and multi-lane free-flow tolling. Trade & Transit Policy: Azerbaijan highlighted digitalized transit and simplified customs as it pushes the TRIPP initiative to expand regional logistics corridors. Public Transit Incentives: Waymo will offer Bay Area riders bus fare credit when they link a Visa card for Waymo rides and public transit trips within two hours.
Trade & Transit Reality Check: A fact-check says Ukraine grain exports via the Black Sea haven’t stopped—shipments are down but continuing, with rail moving more cargo into the EU. Energy & Corridor Buildout: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Dangote back a 120-km refined products pipeline to cut fuel transport delays and strengthen the Ethiopia–Djibouti trade corridor. Road Freight Decarbonization: H2AccelerateTRUCKS convenes an end-user group to scale fuel cell electric trucks across Europe, targeting 125 deployments by 2030. Digital Logistics: FreightPOP launches an MCP server so AI assistants can quote, book, and track using live freight and warehouse tools. Maritime LNG Supply Chain: Axpo-backed Green Pearl debuts in Europe with ship-to-ship and ship-to-truck LNG/bio-LNG loading to simplify small-scale distribution. Urban Transport Pressure: Accra Central Market commuters face delays from congestion and road encroachment around loading areas. Policy & Markets: The US and China extend the trade truce by two months, aiming to keep tariff stability while talks continue. Regional Infrastructure Push: Georgia plans about $7B by 2032 for rail, ports, aviation and roads to bolster its Middle Corridor role. Supply Chain Tech for Fresh Food: Aldi’s Bardon automated distribution center starts fresh produce handling, ramping toward 1.5M kg/day in peak periods.
Automated Vehicle Logistics: Unikie and Audi/VW Group Logistics demonstrated automated loading and unloading of cars onto railway wagons at Audi’s Ingolstadt site, a step toward automating vehicle distribution across Europe. Smart Transit Operations: Singapore’s SBS Transit is trialing an AI assistant (FlowOS) to help controllers reduce bus bunching and delays by flagging issues and recommending interventions. Maritime Trade Disruption: Hurricane Polo is forcing port restrictions on Mexico’s Pacific coast, with Manzanillo limiting ship sizes and raising the risk of delays for North America-bound cargo. Supply Chain Resilience & Policy: Ethiopia used the UN General Assembly to argue for stronger multilateralism and reliable maritime access for Africa and the Global South, tying logistics to trade, energy, and food security. Regional Connectivity Projects: Azerbaijan highlighted TRIPP, aiming for unimpeded multimodal links between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, plus customs simplification and digitalization. Port Performance: Port of Savannah reported faster India-to-Georgia transit times as carriers resume Suez routings, cutting days off voyages. Labor & Worker Protections: Indonesia’s labor protection bill is framed as a major rethink of protections for subcontracted and gig-style work. Customs Enforcement: Nigeria Customs seized contraband worth over N5.5bn and suspended Tinapa Free Trade Zone transfers pending audits over alleged free-zone abuses. Public Transit Funding Push: Vermont advocates launched a statewide campaign to secure dedicated funding to prevent a “death spiral” of service cuts and falling ridership.
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